Gaza ceasefire plan turns into deadly game of survival
For many Israelis, the failure so far to free all the hostages is a moral stain on the government
For the leaders of both Hamas and Israel, ending the war in Gaza has become a deadly game of survival.
The
terms on which the war finally ends could largely determine their
political future and their grip on power. For Hamas leader Yahya
Sinwar, even his physical survival.
It’s
partly why previous negotiations have failed. It’s also why the
question of how to permanently end the fighting has been put off to the
last stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden on Friday.
That
transition between talks on a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to
discussions about a permanent ceasefire would, Mr Biden acknowledged, be
“difficult”.
But it’s also where the success or failure of this latest deal is likely to hinge.
Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has strong domestic reasons for wanting to take this deal step by step.
Phase
one, as outlined by Mr Biden, would see the release of dozens of
hostages, both living and dead. That would be widely welcomed in a
country where the failure to free all those held by Hamas is, for many, a
glaring moral stain on his management of the war.
But
Hamas is unlikely to give up its most politically sensitive hostages –
women, wounded, elderly – without some kind of guarantee that Israel
won’t simply restart the war once they’re home.
Leaks,
quoted by Israeli media on Monday morning, suggested that Benjamin
Netanyahu has told parliamentary colleagues that Israel would be able to
keep its options open.
That option,
to resume fighting – until Hamas is “eliminated” – is, some believe, the
least Mr Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners will demand.
Without their support, he faces the prospect of early elections and the continuation of a corruption trial.
Mr
Netanyahu needs to keep his long-term options open, to stand a chance
of winning their support for any initial hostage deal. Hamas leaders,
on the other hand, are likely to want permanent ceasefire guarantees
upfront.
Previous deals have
collapsed into this chasm. Bridging it now will depend on how much room
for manoeuvre Mr Netanyahu has with his hard-right government allies to
find alternatives to the “elimination” of Hamas – and how far Hamas
leaders are prepared to consider them.